The workshop will primarily address the curriculum's module A4 of the PM subspecialty on mathematical models. This module is assigned with a [P], thus practical experiences are highly recommended for its completion. We will combine theory and practice. We will also encourage residents to present their own work related to infectious disease mathematical and simulation models, so that they can profit from inputs on their research projects.
Other modules partly covered are C3 from the core part I, where we will introduce and practice burden estimators (DALY, YLL and QALY), and C4 of the PM subspecialty where the part on network analysis based on tracking data will be introduced.
Transmission models are frequently used to investigate infectious disease spread and evaluate effectiveness of measures for its control. This leads to evidence that can be further used by policy makers for the decision of outbreak control or control of endemic diseases. Several model types are available that differ from their basic concepts. The best choice depends, among others, on the research question, availability of data and complexity of the host-disease-environment system.
The workshop will address the following aspects of infectious disease models:
- Formulation of research question
- Concepts, structure and use of different transmission model types: mathematical models (differential equations), Monte Carlo simulation models, Bayesian simulation models, network based models, models for vector borne diseases, epidemic vs. endemic models, deterministic vs. stochastic models, frequency vs. density dependent models
- Basic and effective reproductive ratio (R0, Rt), force of infection
- Sourcing of data (parameterization of the model)
- Sensitivity analysis
- Model validation
- Introduction into social network analysis and how networks can be used in infectious disease models
- DALY, YLL and QALY as a potential outcome of infectious disease models
- Communication of model outcomes to stakeholders (policy, animal owners) and among researcher
We will combine theory and exercises in the workshop. Examples will be presented throughout the workshop to illustrate the theory. Participants will be asked to present and discuss own work on infectious disease models. They will have the opportunity to develop a simple model in R or Berkeley Madonna.
Min/Max. number of participants: 10-25
For further information please contact:
Dr. Salome Dürr, VPHI, Univ. Berne
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